CMR Green Technologies Ltd. IPO

India is expected to face limited direct consequences from the United States’ 2025 move to raise import duties on steel and aluminium to 50%. However, the decision has disrupted global trade flows, increasing India’s exposure to inexpensive metal imports from Asian countries such as ... China, South Korea, and Vietnam. India’s proposed 12% safeguard duty on steel imports provides partial protection against the surge of cheap Chinese steel but remains below industry expectations. In FY2025, India exported approximately USD 4.56 billion worth of iron, steel, and aluminium products to the U.S., including USD 587.5 million in iron and steel, USD 3.1 billion in articles of iron or steel, and USD 860 million in aluminium and related articles. The U.S. tariff regime has triggered major concerns for India’s export community, particularly the Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC), representing over 10,000 MSME exporters. EEPC estimates that India could face a USD 7.5-USD 8 billion loss in FY26, with potential job cuts if the duty persists. India exported USD 20 billion in engineering goods to the U.S. in 2024–25, comprising USD 5 billion in steel/aluminium, USD 2.6 billion from the auto sector, and USD 12.5 billion in other engineering goods. Steel and aluminium exports are expected to shrink by about 20%, auto exports by USD 0.5 billion, while the USD 12.5 billion “other engineering goods” segment may contract up to 50%, as U.S. buyers pivot to lower-tariff markets like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the EU. Front-loaded shipments ahead of the tariff deadline temporarily boosted exports. From April–July 2025, engineering exports to the U.S. rose 12.6% to USD 6.95 billion, with July alone posting a 19.2% jump to USD 1.81 billion. Industrial machinery (+17%), electrical machinery (+19%), non-ferrous metals (+27%), and iron and steel (+12%) led the surge, while auto components fell 1%, signaling early stress. Post-tariff trends show softening. In September 2025, exports dipped 9.4% year-on-year to USD 1.45 billion, though steel and aluminium exports remained strong due to tariff parity with competing suppliers. For April–September 2025, engineering exports to the U.S. still grew 8% to USD 10.04 billion, reflecting delayed tariff passthrough on existing orders. Overall, India’s engineering exports grew 5.35% year-on-year to USD 59.36 billion in April–September 2025, accounting for 27–28% of total merchandise exports. While the broader sector remained resilient, supported by strong demand from ASEAN, Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, and North-East Asia, reliance on the U.S. market continues to represent a significant risk. Aluminium: With the US effectively limiting market access for many Asian exporters, India may witness increased inflows of aluminium. This development could reposition India as an important player in regional aluminium trade. Countries like China, which already influence global pricing, may redirect more volumes toward India. The Aluminium Association of India (AAI) has highlighted the need for strategic responses, noting that higher US tariffs may reshape the global aluminium landscape. Domestic producers, who are navigating challenges from competitively priced imports, may need to enhance efficiency and explore value-added opportunities to maintain growth momentum. Zinc: India is a major importer of zinc concentrates, essential for galvanization across infrastructure, automotive, and construction sectors. With global trade diversions caused by US tariffs, excess zinc supply in Asian markets may result in temporary price reductions, potentially disrupting market stability. Copper: Copper plays a vital role in India’s infrastructure, energy transition, and building sectors. Given India’s significant dependency on refined copper imports, trade redirection from the US could lead to increased competition and price fluctuations domestically. While downstream sectors such as electrical cable and wire manufacturing may gain from lower input costs, Indian copper refiners might see their profitability shrink under pressure from rising imports. Stainless Steel: The Indian steel sector is particularly susceptible to trade diversion, especially from China, Indonesia, and South Korea. According to Nikunj Saraf, Vice President at Choice Wealth, the primary concern lies in the renewed risk of Chinese steel dumping in India due to the US market restrictions. Chinese exports to India could rebound to previous levels, nearing one million tonnes, placing downward pressure on domestic prices and compressing margins for Indian producers. Read more